majority rule
okay i wanna do something i think should be really quick but like most things it wont be.
about a year ago (during spring break last march), i created an api that gets player and historical prop data for most major sports in the united states. more importantly, i can see how many people bet on a specific prop on a specific sports betting platform. it roughly looks like this:
notice how here, there are 523 wagers and 520 of them have the over on Harrison Barnes getting 2.5 points in the first quarter.
the question i want to answer is does majority rule work? can i hit on bets at a rate higher than a simple coin toss? maybe not purely off this data but what about capturing lines before they get removed? find lines with high velocity and input? i could be losing tons of money by not taking these bets
or i could be deluding myself. heres the thing, apps like pikkit already tell you how popular a specific pick is and you can see the number of bets on a specific pick in real time. in addition to that, its not just information on one app but on the entire marketplace of apps.
okay, i just reinstalled and set up pikkit again. i think regardless of the outcome this is going to be interesting. i want to start some automated data collection right now and once ive collected enough data for the next week come back and see if i can find some correlation in the data.
so whats the goal?
create a chron job that runs every hour (30 minutes? 15 minutes? this is it’s own hyper parameter ) and collects the prop and player information and stores it in a database ( supabase? firestore? )
okay so first thing is first i need to get all the endpoints i want to call. ill try to collect data for all the leagues but i think im going to do the initial analysis on nba since thats what i know best.
okay so update, i ended up setting up a new python package for this and i stream lined development. i figure i need this for a school project as well so i can use the same package. this is a rough look at the jupyter notebook right now:
24 - 03/23/2025